Writer Clarence | by AfterPost | 17 October 26
COVID-19 hospital admissions in England have jumped 41% in just 2 weeks, NHS now treating around 400 more COVID patients than 2 weeks ago, deaths up 46% in a week. People 85+ hit hardest, admission rates over 10 times national average. Variant is Stratus XFG, no evidence it makes people sicker. Flu showing up earlier than usual, positive tests in September doubling from last year. Levels still low overall, but busy winter ahead.
Latest UKHSA report week ending Sep 20 and Oct 7 data confirms rise.
UKHSA data: August 1,374 cases, September 4,589 cases, up 230%. Hospital admissions Aug 950, Sep 4,939, up 420%. Recent weekly rate rose from 0.81 to 1.20 per 100k, +48% in one week Sep 16-20. Latest Oct dashboards: cases +13.5% week to Oct 7, admissions +33.5%, deaths 41 week to Oct 2 vs 28 Sep 25, +46.4%.
85+ worst hit:
General rate 1.20 per 100k. Age 85+ rate jumped 7.08 to 12.43 per 100k, +76%, over 10x national. London highest regional rate 1.70 per 100k, up from 0.95, +79%.
93 NHS trusts reporting. Emergency dept COVID-like illness up. Hospital PCR positivity 5.9% to 7%.
What is Stratus variant:
XFG, recombinant of LF.7 and LP.8.1.2 Omicron lineages, earliest sample Jan 27 2025, WHO Variant Under Monitoring June 2025. Nicknamed Stratus and American Covid because first detected and sequenced in US, not necessarily origin. Sublineage XFG.23.1.3 46.2% of sequenced samples late August, plus XFG.14.8 12.8%, total XFG family ∼64%.
WHO says no evidence more severe, global public health risk low. UKHSA says autumn vaccine specifically designed to protect against Stratus family. Symptoms: hoarse voice unique, fatigue, cough, fever, sore throat, runny nose, headache, sometimes nausea, vomiting, diarrhoea.
Flu early warning:
Flu positivity up, September tests double last year, shows earlier than usual. UKHSA notes both viruses low overall but simultaneous rise typical autumn pattern: waning immunity, variant change, indoor mixing.
NHS winter outlook:
Current admissions still far below Jan 2021 peak 20k. Deaths still below Oct 2024 peak 102 same week. But trend rising. NHS guidance: stay home 5 days if adult positive, 3 days if under 18, avoid vulnerable 10 days. Autumn booster targeted: 75+, care home residents, immunosuppressed 6 months+.
Experts: Dr Matthew Siggins, Surrey, rise not unexpected, not reason for alarm, remains baseline level. Prof Paul Hunter, UEA, reported infections still lower than last year.
FAQ
Is Stratus variant more dangerous?
No evidence. WHO and UKHSA say not causing more severe disease, just more transmissible, dominates because advantage over competing lineages.How many COVID deaths England last week?
41 deaths week to Oct 2, up from 28 prior week, up 46.4%, per UKHSA dashboard. Still below 102 same week 2024.Why are over 85s hit hardest?
Waning immunity, underlying conditions, less exposure immunity. Rate 12.43 vs 1.20 national.Is flu worse this year?
Early signs yes, September positivity doubled vs 2025, but still low. NHS urging flu and COVID jabs together.Should I get vaccinated now?
Eligible groups now offered autumn jabs in England. If 75+, care home, immunosuppressed, book via NHS.Also read this: https://afterpostint.com/post/h2-strong-lyon-tourist-office-ablaze-as-france-protests-erupt-strong-h2