Writer Clarence | by AfterPost | 09 October 26 ---- Saudi Arabia says the world's most dangerous waterway is secure. The Houthis say the offensive failed completely. The reality on the ground is somewhere in between, and far more dangerous.
On Friday, October 9, Saudi Ambassador to Yemen Mohammed Al Jaber triggered a wave of headlines when he posted on X:
> "Blessed Friday, and victory for every Yemeni and Arab. Bab al Mandab has been cleared of the remnants of the Houthi terrorist militia."
Within an hour, Houthi-affiliated Saba News published the opposite: Saudi-backed forces had launched an attack south of the strait and were repelled with zero progress.
Who is right?
According to TRT World, Anadolu, AFP, and AP reporting from this morning, *both statements contain truth.*
What Actually Happened Today
Yemeni government forces confirmed they launched a major operation at dawn on Friday to seize full control of Bab el-Mandab and Mayun Island, the volcanic island that sits in the middle of the strait like an aircraft carrier.
The force is led by the Southern Giants Brigades and the Nation's Shield Forces, with heavy air support from the Saudi-led coalition. One Yemeni military source told AFP on condition of anonymity before the ambassador's tweet:
"Fighting is fierce and advances are limited."
Other local sources told Sky News Arabia that Giants forces did make territorial advances, but no independent outlet has been able to verify that the strait is 100% cleared.
This confusion is deliberate. In modern Yemen, the information war moves faster than the tanks.
Why This Battle Started Now
This is not a routine clash. It is the climax of the biggest escalation since the UN truce of 2022.
Timeline:
September 2026: Houthi forces exploited the US-Iran war, which effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, to seize Dhubab town, coastal positions around Bab el-Mandab, and Mayun Island. For the first time since 2018, they could directly threaten Saudi oil shipments that were being rerouted via the Red Sea.
October 6, 2026: Saudi-backed Yemeni government forces launched a counter-offensive. Officials said over 100,000 troops could be mobilized. By Monday they had retaken Dhubab and the towns of Bab and Hadeid. Witnesses reported government tanks entering the towns.
*October 9, 2026:* The push for the strait itself began.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio confirmed Washington's role: The US is providing intelligence sharing, target identification and operational planning to the Saudi-backed offensive under a bilateral defense agreement.
Why 12% of World Trade Depends on This Fight
Bab el-Mandab translates as "Gate of Tears" in Arabic. It's 18 miles wide at its narrowest point and connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden.
If Hormuz is blocked, Bab el-Mandab is the only alternative for Gulf oil to reach Europe via the Suez Canal. About 6.2 million barrels of oil and 12% of global trade pass through daily.
The Houthis proved in 2023-2024 they don't need to own the strait to close it. Drones, anti-ship missiles from the highlands, and explosive boats can shut shipping even if they lose the beach.
That is why Saudi Arabia's declaration of "cleared" matters so much for markets, and why military sources are more cautious. Clearing villages is one thing. Suppressing missile launch sites in the mountains of Taiz and Hudaydah is another.
As of tonight, shipping insurers have not resumed normal transit. The war for Bab el-Mandab is not over, even if the battle for its beach may be ending.
Sources:TRT World / Kurdistan24 / AP / AFP / Anadolu Agency