21/09/26
By AfterPost
SCHWERIN, Sept 21, 2026 — Germany's far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) has won first place in state elections in northeastern Germany, dealing a historic blow to Chancellor Friedrich Merz.
The AfD took *38.3%* in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania on Sunday, according to ARD projections, ahead of the centre-left SPD on 35.4%. Merz's Christian Democratic Union (CDU) collapsed to *4.9%* — below the 5% threshold to enter the state parliament.
Merz himself called the result: *"It's a disaster."*
Despite speculation he could resign, Merz vowed to stay and accelerate his reform agenda.
> "The result in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania cannot be exaggerated. This is a disaster. The CDU fought, but in the end the party was squeezed and actually crushed," Merz said at CDU headquarters Sunday night. 1986
This is the second state-level victory for AfD this month after Saxony-Anhalt, and the CDU's worst state result in postwar Germany — the first time in 81 years the party has failed to clear 5% in any state, federal or European election. 1102
4 Takeaways Why This Changes German Politics
1. The Firewall Holds, But AfD Can't Be Ignored
AfD won but won't govern. All other parties refuse to work with it. Yet with 38% and leading national polls at 26%, the firewall strategy is creating a permanent opposition block that grows every election. 2fb2
2. Merz is Now the Lame Duck
This isn't just one state. In Berlin's election held the same day, Merz's CDU tumbled to 19-20% while far-left Linke took first place with 25.3%. With approval ratings already low and 48% of Germans expecting him to leave before end of 2026, his "firmness, steadfastness and patience" line may not save him. 2fb21986
3. The East is Lost for the Centre-Right
Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania is rural, economically weaker, and furious about Merz's welfare cuts and energy policy. The popular SPD premier Manuela Schwesig surged precisely because she attacked _both_ AfD and Merz's reforms. CDU is being squeezed out in the east entirely. 9269
4. Berlin Shows Germany is Polarizing, Not Just Moving Right
While the northeast went far-right, the capital went far-left. Linke wants to nationalise housing from corporate landlords and cap rents — and won Berlin for the first time ever. AfD even hit 16.3% in liberal Berlin. Germany is splitting into two protest votes: east = AfD, cities = Linke. CDU is losing both. f697
*What happens next:* Merz has called a party meeting for Sunday night to plot the way forward. He insists he will "prepare our country for the future" with painful reforms. But with CDU excluded from Schwerin parliament and AfD claiming momentum, the pressure for a leadership challenge is growing